Gold and silver: Uncertainty is the fuel
With gold trading around ₹5,200 and silver near ₹87, precious metals continue their steady climb — and Imran sees no reason for that to change as long as policy uncertainty out of Washington persists. The unpredictability surrounding Trump’s tariff moves is driving investors toward safe-haven assets, and that demand shows little sign of abating in the near term.
But the more durable driver, in Imran’s view, is central bank buying. After purchasing 764 tonnes of gold in 2025, central banks globally have carried that momentum into 2026, with January data already confirming continued net buying. Even at elevated prices, sovereign demand remains a structural floor for gold. Imran expects central banks to remain net buyers through the year, which keeps the medium-term outlook firmly bullish regardless of how the tariff situation eventually resolves.
Oil: $4–$5 of geopolitical risk premium still baked in
Crude oil dipped roughly 1% in the latest session after reports emerged that the US may opt for a limited strike on Iran rather than a broader military engagement. That prospect eased some of the fear premium that had been building, but Imran cautions that the risk is far from priced out.
His estimate is that Brent and WTI still carry $4–$5 of embedded geopolitical risk premium. And critically, even a limited US strike does not resolve the uncertainty — the key unknown is how aggressively Iran would retaliate. Under a limited conflict scenario, Imran sees WTI crude moving toward $78 per barrel. Supporting the bullish case further, shipping tracking data showed floating oil inventories dropped 6% week-on-week, signaling tightening physical supply in the market.
OPEC+ holds the cards through mid-year
Even if geopolitical tensions cool, Imran does not see a significant supply-driven price correction arriving quickly. The April-to-October window represents the peak demand season for crude globally, and supply-side disruptions are adding pressure on the other end. US crude production faced setbacks in January due to an Arctic blast, while Kazakhstan has also shown unexpected tightness — factors that have kept the Brent calendar spread elevated at around 40 cents, down from $1 but still pointing to a tight market.
OPEC+ remains the swing factor. Imran argues the group has both the motivation and the means to keep markets tight — member economies are overwhelmingly dependent on oil revenues, giving them every incentive to pause or delay any planned production increases. He expects OPEC+ to continue managing supply carefully over the next three to six months, effectively putting a floor under prices even as demand seasonality provides a ceiling for the rest of the year.
The bottomline for investors
The commodity complex is being driven by two interlocking forces right now: macro uncertainty fueling precious metals demand, and geopolitical risk keeping crude elevated. For gold and silver, the structural story of central bank accumulation provides a longer runway beyond near-term noise. For oil, the next move depends heavily on how the Iran-US situation develops — a swift de-escalation could bring prices down, but supply tightness and OPEC+ discipline suggest any pullback may be limited and short-lived.