From Q2 earnings to FII movements: 8 key drivers likely to impact D-Street this week – News Air Insight

The benchmark indices, Nifty 50 and Sensex, closed the week higher, lifted by the Reserve Bank of India’s accommodative policy stance, cooling crude oil prices, and improved sentiment in the broader market. The Nifty 50 gained almost 1%, rising 239.55 points to end at 24,894.25, while the Nifty Bank surged 2.21%, or 1,199.90 points, to finish at 55,589.25.

In its latest policy decision, the RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.50%—the lowest since August 2022—underscoring its priority on supporting growth. The central bank also revised its FY26 GDP growth estimate upward to 6.8% from 6.5%, while trimming its inflation forecast to 2.6% from 3.1%.

Against this backdrop, here are the factors that are likely to impact movement when markets reopen this week:

1. Q2 earnings: The coming week will be pivotal as the Q2FY26 earnings season gets underway, with IT bellwether TCS scheduled to announce results on October 9.

2. Primary market activity: Primary market activity is also set to remain strong, with large IPOs from Tata Capital and LG Electronics lined up.

3. Macroeconomic data: On the macroeconomic front, the release of HSBC Services and Composite PMI, along with banking sector data on loan and deposit growth, will be closely monitored.4. US updates: Globally, key US macroeconomic updates—including the FOMC minutes, jobless claims, and consumer sentiment data—will be in focus, especially against the backdrop of the ongoing government shutdown that has already delayed some economic releases.5. Technical triggers: Ajit Mishra, SVP- Research, at Religare Broking noted, Nifty closed close to its immediate resistance at 24,900, which coincides with the 20-DEMA.
“A sustained move above this level could extend the recovery towards 25,150 initially, followed by a major hurdle at 25,400. On the downside, immediate support is now placed in the 24,600–24,750 zone, with stronger support near 24,600,” he added.

6. FII action: On the institutional front, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers, offloading Rs 8,347 crore in the cash segment during the week. However, strong inflows from Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) amounting to Rs 13,013 crore provided crucial support, cushioning the overall market sentiment.

7. Crude prices: Crude oil prices declined by 6.75% during the week, easing inflationary pressures and strengthening expectations of a potential rate cut in the December policy meeting.

8. Currency movement: Rupee traded slightly weak this week, after the RBI policy outcome, where no rate cut was announced, but supportive measures such as liquidity infusion through CRR cuts and government spending, along with LAF daily surplus averaging Rs 2.1 trillion since the August MPC, kept sentiment stable. The RBI’s assurance of actively managing short-term rates through two-way liquidity operations also helped limit downside pressure.

“US tariffs remain a major overhang, keeping the rupee under pressure despite the dollar index holding steady in the 96–98 range. With NFP data due later, volatility could increase, and the rupee is expected to trade within 88.45–89.25,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)