Kaustubh Pawaskar, VP and Lead Analyst at ICICI Direct, offered a detailed reading of the Q4 business landscape in a recent interview with ET Now, highlighting standout performers while flagging areas that need close monitoring in FY27.
Trent delivers, with more room to run
Retail giant Trent posted 20% revenue growth in the latest quarter, meeting analyst expectations after a period of softer numbers. Pawaskar attributed the rebound primarily to aggressive store additions, particularly under its value fashion label Zudio, which added 109 stores during the quarter alone, bringing its full-year store count expansion to 198 units. Westside added around 50 stores over the same period.
“Like-for-like growth remains flattish or slightly negative at the moment, but once overall apparel consumption improves, Trent’s growth could get back into the mid-20s,” Pawaskar noted. He pegged FY27 revenue growth for the company at 21% to 22% under a base case, with upside potential to 24% to 25% if same-store sales pick up.
FMCG companies post stable quarter, But Q1 margin watch begins
The broader FMCG pack — Marico, Dabur, and Godrej Consumer Products — largely delivered in line with expectations for Q4. Marico is set to record its fourth consecutive quarter of high single-digit volume growth, supported by a 35% decline in copra prices that is expected to boost gross margins. Godrej Consumer Products indicated high single-digit volume growth, and double-digit growth when soaps are excluded from the calculation. Dabur flagged demand improvement, with certain categories expected to clock over 20% growth.
However, Pawaskar sounded a note of caution for the quarters ahead. The recent spike in crude oil and other commodity prices is expected to weigh on margins for most FMCG companies starting from Q1 FY27. “Q4 update is good, but Q1 and Q2 should be monitored carefully in terms of margin impact,” he said.
Monsoon forecast adds a layer of uncertainty
The prediction of a below-normal monsoon has introduced a fresh variable into consumption forecasts. Pawaskar was measured in his response, pointing out that the early-season forecast could still change and that the past two monsoon seasons were strong enough to sustain rural recovery. The real test, he argued, will be food inflation.”If food inflation moves up, that will have an impact on consumer demand,” he said. Companies with a heavier rural tilt stand to be more exposed if rural demand softens, while those focused on urban premiumisation or discretionary categories are likely to remain more resilient.
Jubilant FoodWorks disappoints; QSR segment under pressure
On the quick service restaurant front, Jubilant FoodWorks fell short of mid-single-digit growth expectations. While the company is not formally covered by Pawaskar’s team, he pointed to the LPG supply disruption as a key headwind that affected store operations during the quarter. New store additions in the last two quarters also need time to stabilise and contribute meaningfully to revenue. The challenge, he noted, applies broadly to QSR players with heavy LPG dependence.
Where are analysts finding comfort?
Despite the mixed picture, Pawaskar maintained a selective positive stance on certain names. Marico remains a top pick on the back of its scaling food and premium personal care businesses, which are providing structural support beyond its core edible oil and Parachute franchise. Tata Consumer Products earns favour for its push into higher-margin new businesses that are expected to drive growth visibility over the next two years. Titan rounds out the preferred list, with jewellery demand remaining strong across the sector ahead of its quarterly update.
The broader message from the analyst community is clear: Q4 was a quarter of stabilisation and recovery, but FY27 will demand sharper attention to monsoon trends, commodity costs, and whether the urban and rural consumption engines can hold their momentum together.