Festive demand, GST cuts and sector rotation could drive next market rally: Sachin Shah – News Air Insight

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Indian markets may be in consolidation mode, but the next big trigger could come from festive demand recovery and GST rate cuts, according to Sachin Shah, Fund Manager at Emkay Investment Managers.

Shah told ET Now that while some recent sessions have seen volatility and selling pressure, the overall outlook remains positive. “Ground reports clearly indicate very strong demand. Auto majors like Maruti have reported double the inquiries and bookings, while leading e-commerce platforms are seeing 25–30% year-on-year sales growth this festive season. As actual numbers flow in, markets could see a strong uptick,” he said.

Correction opens investment opportunities

Shah sees the current correction as a buying opportunity for long-term investors. He highlighted private sector banks and NBFCs as key beneficiaries of rising discretionary consumption. IT services is another sector he favors after a significant valuation correction, with long-term tailwinds from cloud migration and AI adoption.

“Over the next three to five years, IT services companies will benefit from modernization projects like mainframe-to-cloud migration and AI enablement. Current valuations offer a good margin of safety,” he added.

Sectors to watch

  • Financial services: Retail-focused private banks and NBFCs expected to ride the consumption wave.
  • IT services: Valuation corrections and structural AI/cloud opportunities provide favorable risk-reward.
  • Consumer durables & auto: Supported by festive demand and GST rationalization.
  • Pharma: Limited impact from US tariff concerns, presenting opportunities post-correction.

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Cement sector outlook

On cement, Shah said Emkay remains selective but sees structural long-term growth. “Housing is the biggest driver of cement demand. While first-half volumes were muted, we expect 7–9% growth in the second half, further boosted by GST cuts and infra capex. Cement remains a secular growth story, though regional demand-supply dynamics will matter,” he explained.

Overall, Shah believes India’s domestic growth engines—consumption, housing, and infra spending—combined with favorable policy moves, will help markets recover strongly over the medium term.

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