HDFC Bank: Attractive valuation, ugly news flow
Maheshwari opens with a rare disclosure — he owns HDFC Bank himself. That makes his caution all the more striking.
“We have not seen the end of this controversy,” he said flatly. Despite calling valuations “very, very attractive,” he stops well short of recommending a buy. His advice: wait it out.
The numbers tell an interesting story. A decade ago, HDFC Bank commanded three to four times price-to-book. Today it sits at roughly 1.4 to 1.5 times — levels that put it in the same bracket as SBI and potentially at a discount to ICICI Bank. The governance premium that once justified a higher multiple has already been largely erased by the market.
The key question hanging over the stock is not valuation — it is what the outgoing chairman actually found. Until that clarity arrives, institutional investors, both domestic and foreign, are unlikely to return with conviction. Maheshwari’s bottom line: do not rush in, but do not sell at these prices either. For long-term holders, the institution’s decades-long track record remains intact. For new buyers, patience costs nothing right now.
L&T: Short-term pain, long-term gain
On Larsen and Toubro, Maheshwari’s view is structured and time-bound. The current quarter is largely insulated from Middle East disruption — roughly 95% of sites remain operational. But from next quarter onwards, margin pressure becomes real.
The longer-term picture, however, flips the narrative entirely. With one-third of L&T’s revenues tied to the Middle East — heavily concentrated in oil and gas — the reconstruction and repair work that follows the current disruption will generate a significant pipeline of new business. Damage creates demand, and L&T is positioned to capture it.On the green energy transition, Maheshwari is measured. Both L&T and Reliance are pivoting toward green hydrogen and green ammonia, but these are decade-long projects. He does not expect any material impact on L&T’s earnings in the next one to two years. It is a story to watch, not yet one to price in.
IndiGo: Most of the bad news is already in the stock
InterGlobe Aviation has fallen from around 5,000 to approximately 4,000 — a steep correction driven by a confluence of headwinds: fuel cost spikes, international traffic down roughly 20% month-to-date, and the removal of domestic airfare caps adding pricing uncertainty.
Maheshwari’s read is that a substantial portion of the pain is already reflected in the price. He would not sell here. Another 5 to 10% downside, however, would represent a genuine buying opportunity. The key unknown remains the duration of the conflict and how quickly international routes normalise — factors no analyst can predict with confidence today.
GLP-1 drugs: Play the distribution, not the drug
On the emerging GLP-1 weight-loss drug theme, Maheshwari’s strategy is direct: back the companies with established local distribution networks. Glenmark, Dr Reddy’s, Sun Pharma, and Alkem are his preferred names — large players who can capture the margin without sharing it downstream.
Smaller players like Natco Pharma will participate, he notes, but will have to split economics with local distributors, compressing returns.
MFI sector: Size wins again
On microfinance, Maheshwari agrees the sector is likely bottoming. The government’s decision to raise the guarantee from Rs 7,500 crore to Rs 20,000 crore helps — particularly smaller players. But his conviction sits with the larger, more disciplined lenders. The structural problem in MFI — too many players chasing the same borrowers, overleveraging, and a credit blowup roughly every five years — disproportionately punishes undisciplined smaller operators.