‘Don’t be a hero’: CA Rudramurthy BV says stay away from longs; short Havells and Lodha instead – News Air Insight

CA Rudramurthy BV, MD of Vachana Investments, has a blunt message for Indian equity investors: until Brent crude falls below $95, the rupee drops below 92, and the VIX cools under 15, every market rally is a shorting opportunity — not a buying one.

The “Trump tweet indicator” is now a real market variable

Rudramurthy opens with a pointed observation: technical analysis and fundamentals are no longer sufficient. Investors must now account for what he calls the “Trump tweet indicator” — the whiplash effect of contradictory statements from Washington on the pace and outcome of the West Asia conflict. One day, signals of ceasefire negotiations. The next morning, talk of two to three more weeks of war. Iran, for its part, has stated readiness to hold out for six months.

His conclusion: Iran’s statements are more bankable than Trump’s. And if Iran is to be believed, this conflict is not ending soon. Even in a best-case scenario where hostilities cease immediately, Rudramurthy argues that the economic damage already done — to GDP, to energy costs, to currency stability — requires at least six months to work through.

Three conditions before going long — none are met yet

Rudramurthy is unusually precise about what needs to change before he turns bullish. Brent crude must fall below $95 per barrel. The dollar-rupee exchange rate must come back below 92. And the India VIX must drop below 15. Until all three thresholds are crossed, he says, any pullback in the Nifty should be read as a shorting opportunity rather than a dip to buy.

The macro backdrop backs his caution. FIIs have pulled out over ₹1.10 lakh crore from Indian markets in the current month alone. Over the past two years, cumulative FII withdrawals have crossed ₹6 lakh crore — a sustained exodus that removes a critical pillar of market support. The rupee’s continued weakness adds another layer of pressure for foreign investors calculating their real returns.

Hedge long-term portfolios with put options now

For investors who hold long-term equity portfolios and cannot or will not exit, Rudramurthy has a practical recommendation: buy put options as a hedge. In a high-volatility environment, put premiums rise alongside the VIX, meaning the hedge itself becomes more valuable precisely when the portfolio needs protection most. It is a cost-effective way, he argues, to stay invested structurally while limiting near-term drawdown risk.

Short trades: Havells and Lodha are the specific calls

For those willing to trade the short side, Rudramurthy identifies two names with clear technical setups.

Havells India — Short in Futures

Lodha (Macrotech) — Short in F&O

Havells has broken crucial chart support and Rudramurthy sees it heading toward ₹1,100. In real estate, he singles out Lodha as the weakest F&O stock in the sector. Both calls are framed as short-term trades, consistent with his broader view that the current market structure rewards sellers, not buyers.