By Saturday afternoon, it seemed the wait was finally over. Clouds thickened, rain swept across parts of Delhi, and temperatures dropped sharply. But despite the promising signs, the monsoon’s official arrival in the Capital was deferred yet again and the forecast slipped past its mark.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) stopped short of declaring monsoon onset over Delhi and the remaining parts of the country on Saturday, saying conditions were “favourable” and the official declaration may come within the next 48 hours.
Several parts of Delhi saw light to moderate showers by late afternoon, including the southwest, south and eastern zones. The heaviest rain was recorded in Mayur Vihar (23mm), while Palam and Ayanagar logged 9.7mm and 9.2mm respectively. Other areas such as Pusa (0.5mm), Najafgarh (2.5mm), and Lodhi Road recorded only trace rainfall. Delhi’s base station at Safdarjung — crucial for determining monsoon onset — also logged only trace rain between 8.30am and 5.30pm.
“We need Safdarjung to report widespread rain to declare onset. We will look at the 24-hour rainfall data for the region as a whole, including west Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana and Chandigarh to declare further onset,” an IMD official said, adding that the monsoon was moving towards Delhi from western Uttar Pradesh.
Meanwhile, Noida received 21mm, Gurugram 10.7mm, and western UP saw intense afternoon spells. A yellow alert for light showers and winds of up to 50 km/hr has been issued for Sunday.
IMD has said the monsoon’s northern limit was still tracking through Jaisalmer, Bikaner, Jhunjhunu, Bharatpur, Rampur, Sonipat, and Anup Nagar — just short of Delhi. But conditions were finally aligning, it added.
“Conditions are becoming favourable for the further advance of southwest monsoon over the remaining parts of the country during the next two days,” IMD said in its daily bulletin, adding that heavy to very heavy rain is likely to continue over many parts of northwest, central, east and northeast India over the next seven days, with isolated and extremely heavy spells expected over Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh on June 30.
The brief rain brought relief from the oppressive humid heat that the city had experienced in the past week or so. Delhi’s maximum temperature stood at 36.2 degrees Celsius (°C) – a degree below the normal and 2.9°C cooler than Friday. The maximum temperature is forecast to be between 33 and 35°C on Saturday, IMD said. The minimum stood at 28.7°C, a degree above normal but forecast to drop by 1-2°C on Saturday.
“Between 1.30pm and 3.30pm, there was a fall of 10-12°C over south Delhi stations such as Ayanagar, Pushp Vihar and IGNOU and by 5-7°C over central Delhi stations like Lodhi Road, Pusa, Pragati Maidan,” said IMD scientist Krishna Mishra.
The monsoon, despite making an early onset over Kerala, is late for the national capital. It reached Kerala almost a week early this year – on May 24 as compared to its normal date of June 1. However, it has already missed the normal date of June 27 for Delhi.
For the past week, the monsoon has played a game of moving goalposts with the Capital. Last Friday, IMD said conditions were favourable for the monsoon to reach Delhi by Tuesday. Last Sunday, the forecast was revised to say the onset would happen “in the next two days.”
Meteorologist Ashwary Tiwary, who runs the weather page IndiaMetSky, said Saturday’s rain was induced by the monsoon trough, which shifted north by evening.
“The trough was fairly elongated and so Delhi did not see widespread rain, including over Safdarjung. Had we seen that, the onset could have been declared on Saturday itself,” he said, adding that the monsoon trough is likely to remain north of Delhi on Sunday and Monday, with it strengthening further due to a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal.
“The low-pressure area will feed moisture and lead to more trough induced rains, including over Delhi. The trough is expected to extend from northern Pakistan to the Bay of Bengal, meaning northern India will see good rains till the end of the month,” Tiwari added.
Delhi has received 93.1mm in monthly rainfall, making it rain-surplus even without the monsoon. The long period average for rain in June is 74.1mm. Last year, the monsoon arrived in Delhi on June 28, but dumped 228.1mm of rainfall in a single day. In 2023, the monsoon arrived early – on June 25, bringing 48.3mm in a single day.
Delhi’s air quality remained in the “satisfactory” range on Saturday, aided by rain. The average air quality index (AQI) was 97 as compared to 76 (satisfactory) on Friday.