Export recovery leads the charge
Brokerages expect Bajaj Auto’s overall volumes to have grown by about 6% YoY in the quarter, largely driven by a rebound in exports, particularly in Africa and Latin America. Domestic sales, meanwhile, may have declined by around 5% YoY.
According to Motilal Oswal, export volumes grew by about 24%, while 2W sales were up 3% and 3W volumes rose 20%, making the quarter’s product mix favourable. The brokerage expects margins to improve by around 30 basis points sequentially to 20%, aided by a better mix and currency gains.
Richer product mix supports revenue and margins
Analysts expect average selling prices (ASPs) to rise 6–8% YoY, led by a higher share of premium motorcycles and three-wheelers, along with favourable forex movement. Kotak Institutional Equities expects a 13% rise in revenues, citing a strong export-led mix and better realisations. It also sees EBITDA margins improving 70 bps sequentially, driven by operating leverage, lower EV share, and festive-linked demand.
ICICI Securities similarly estimates a 14% revenue growth, factoring in a 6% volume increase and 8% ASP growth on account of richer 3W exports and premium bikes. The brokerage expects EBITDA margin expansion of about 30 bps YoY, supported by better mix and forex gains, partly offset by price cuts in select domestic models.
Margins likely steady to mildly higher
Most brokerages see EBITDA margins in the 19.5–20% range, with operating leverage and favourable exchange rates offsetting softer domestic volumes. Axis Securities expects revenues to climb 7% YoY and 12% QoQ, with a 46-bps sequential margin improvement due to higher exports and cost control efforts.
Nuvama Institutional Equities said the quarter will benefit from a higher share of models above 125cc and a stronger three-wheeler contribution, which should lead to modest margin expansion. It, however, noted that investors should watch for the company’s demand outlook commentary and the launch timelines for upcoming products.
Key monitorables
Analysts expect Bajaj Auto to provide updates on export market momentum, especially in Africa, pricing trends in domestic motorcycles, and the ramp-up of new launches. The company’s strategy on electric two-wheelers and the festive demand trajectory will also be in focus.
Ola Electric Q2 Results: Cons loss narrows to Rs 418 crore YoY, revenue plunges 43%
Overall, despite mixed demand trends in the domestic market, Bajaj Auto is expected to deliver steady growth in Q2FY26, with export recovery, premiumisation, and currency tailwinds cushioning earnings.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)