The Nikkei 225 index jumped more than 4%, heading for the biggest one-day gain since April, after pro-stimulus lawmaker Sanae Takaichi was positioned to become the country’s next prime minister. MSCI’s gauge of Asian shares climbed for a sixth day, propelling the index to a new record.
The yen weakened 1.5% against the dollar, sliding toward the closely watched level of 150 to the US currency. The yen fell to a record low against the euro. Japan’s shorter-maturity notes gained, and bond futures jumped.
Gold rose above $3,900 an ounce to yet another record, extending a rally that’s been a feature of commodity markets all year. Bitcoin also set another all-time high over the weekend. Oil advanced after OPEC+ agreed Sunday to revive just 137,000 barrels a day of halted supply — a slower pace than earlier this year. Equity-index futures for the US also rose.
The jump in Asian shares and the gains in US futures indicate the rally in tech stocks — powered by bets on artificial intelligence – is set to resume after taking a breather Friday. While the US government shutdown meant the crucial nonfarm payrolls data didn’t get published, swap traders are confident the Federal Reserve will execute another quarter-point interest-rate cut in October.
Meanwhile, Takaichi is set to become Japan’s first female prime minister after winning the Liberal Democratic Party leadership contest Saturday. Investors had expected the seat to go to political scion Shinjiro Koizumi, who was seen as taking a more fiscally cautious view and leaving the Bank of Japan to press ahead with normalization. While Takaichi’s appointment has lifted growth expectations, it has also raised concern over increasing bond supply while reducing chances of a BOJ rate hike this month. “It might be more of a positive surprise for equities,” said Anna Wu, cross-asset investment strategist at VanEck Australia. “I won’t be too surprised if the long-end yields go up a bit on Monday, given her overarching fiscal policy,” she said, while noting that Takaichi is unlikely to overstimulate, and volatility may be limited.
Meanwhile, the US government shutdown continued with unions representing hundreds of thousands of federal workers asking a judge to immediately block any mass firings by the Trump administration. The shutdown meant the Bureau of Labor Statistics didn’t publish the payrolls data Friday.
“The short-term market impact remains limited,” Dilin Wu, a strategist at Pepperstone Group, wrote in a note. “But prolonged fiscal gridlock could disrupt the broad market rally and lift volatility.”
In corporate news, Nvidia Corp.’s major server production partner Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. reported 11% growth in quarterly sales, signaling healthy demand for AI infrastructure.
Traders in Asia will also be focused on French bond futures after President Emmanuel Macron’s broadly unchanged cabinet sparked an immediate backlash from opposition parties.
While most senior members from the cabinet of ousted premier Francois Bayrou were renamed to their posts, Roland Lescure was appointed finance minister and faces the task of passing a budget through a fractured parliament. The euro edged lower early Monday amid broad greenback strength.
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