According to an average of six brokerages, Airtel’s consolidated revenue is expected to rise about 18% year-on-year (YoY) in Q3, while adjusted profit after tax is seen growing 35% over the same period. On a sequential basis, most analysts expect low-to-mid single-digit growth, reflecting a stable operating environment rather than any one-off trigger.
The India wireless business is likely to remain the key earnings driver. Analysts broadly agree that ARPU improvement, led by ongoing migration from 2G to 4G and higher-quality subscriber additions, will continue to support topline growth.
UBS estimates India mobile revenue to grow 2.3% quarter-on-quarter, driven by a 1.7% improvement in implied ARPU. The brokerage highlights that while overall net subscriber additions have been moderate, Airtel has consistently added higher-value postpaid users, a trend that has accelerated over the last few quarters.
Centrum expects Airtel to add around 3 million subscribers sequentially, taking the total subscriber base to about 367 million. ARPU is estimated to rise 2% QoQ to around Rs 261 per month, keeping Airtel at the top end of the industry on pricing. Centrum expects overall revenue to grow about 3.3% sequentially.
Nuvama is slightly more constructive on near-term growth, building in 4.1% QoQ growth in consolidated revenue. This includes a 3.3% QoQ increase in the India business and a sharper 9% QoQ growth in Africa revenues in rupee terms, helped by currency movements. The brokerage expects India mobile services revenue to grow 2.6% QoQ and sees consolidated EBITDA margin expanding by 10 basis points sequentially.
Kotak Equities expects revenue and EBITDA to grow 1.6% and 2.7% QoQ, respectively. It models wireless net additions of about 3 million, higher than the previous quarter, and sees ARPU inching up to Rs 258 from Rs 255. Kotak also expects broadband net additions of around 0.95 million in the quarter, while enterprise margins are likely to remain stable at about 41.6%.Motilal Oswal expects around 3% QoQ growth in consolidated revenue, supported by strong performance in the Homes segment and Airtel Africa, with favourable foreign exchange movements adding to reported numbers. The company’s India wireless revenue and EBITDA are expected to grow at a more modest 1.4% QoQ. The brokerage estimates wireless ARPU at Rs 258, up 0.8% QoQ, along with 3.5 million net paying subscriber additions and 6 million 4G-5G net adds.
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The non-wireless businesses are also expected to play an important supporting role this quarter. UBS expects home broadband revenue to grow 32% year-on-year and 7% sequentially, while enterprise revenue is seen rising 2.5% QoQ. Airtel Africa continues to be a strong growth engine, with UBS estimating around 5% QoQ growth in both revenue and EBITDA, supported by market share gains, ARPU improvement and continued 4G upgrades.
On the profitability front, EBITDA growth is expected to broadly track revenue growth, with some operating leverage from higher ARPU and scale benefits. Most brokerages expect margins to remain stable to slightly higher sequentially, as network costs and subscriber acquisition expenses remain under control.
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