Brokerages expect revenue to grow between 14% and 28% YoY, while profit after tax (PAT) could rise 7–26% YoY. Margin performance, however, is expected to be mixed due to base effects, operational changes, and sale-related distortions in the previous year.
Estimates from PhillipCapital, Nuvama Institutional Equities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL), and Kotak Institutional Equities have been considered.
PAT Estimates
- PhillipCapital: Rs 3,156 crore (up 25.5% YoY, 2.5% QoQ)
- Nuvama: Rs 2,899 crore (up 19% YoY, 2% QoQ)
- MOFSL: Rs 3,079 crore (up 17% YoY)
- Kotak Equities: Rs 3,173 crore (up 7.4% YoY, 10.8% QoQ)
Strong PAT growth is expected due to operational efficiency and volume-led topline growth. Kotak notes the prior-year base includes a Rs 600 crore gain from the Ennore stake sale, which may moderate headline growth. However, normalized numbers show a healthy 20% increase. PhillipCapital expects higher tax efficiency and interest savings to support net earnings.
Revenue Estimates
- PhillipCapital: Rs 8,904 crore (up 28% YoY, 4.9% QoQ)
- Nuvama: Rs 9,003 crore (up 19% YoY, 6% QoQ)
- MOFSL: Rs 8,584 crore (up 23.4% YoY)
- Kotak Equities: Rs 8,644 crore (up 14.3% YoY, 1.8% QoQ)
PhillipCapital expects consolidated revenue to rise 19% YoY, with port volumes growing 11% and realisations up 5%. Kotak models 11%/13% YoY growth in port volume/revenue, driven by a 19% YoY rise in container volumes. The growth is supported by Vizhinjam’s scale-up and the commissioning of the Colombo terminal.Kotak also notes a 6% YoY rise in the residual portfolio, which is reasonable amid current sector trends. They forecast 14% overall revenue growth, boosted by the Astro requisition and an uptick in logistics income, offsetting the high base from the Ennore stake sale.
EBITDA Estimates
- PhillipCapital: Rs 5,159 crore (up 21.6% YoY, 3.1% QoQ)
- Nuvama: Rs 5,110 crore (up 6% YoY, 4% QoQ)
- MOFSL: Rs 5,159 crore
- Kotak Equities: Rs 5,112 crore (up 5.5% YoY, 2.1% QoQ)
EBITDA Margin
- PhillipCapital: 57.9% (down 307 bps YoY, 103 bps QoQ)
- Nuvama: 56.8% (marginal compression)
- MOFSL: 60.1% (down YoY from 61%, up 110 bps QoQ)
- Kotak Equities: 59.1% (up 499 bps YoY, 16 bps QoQ)
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