“Your decade is this decade, and I have no doubt India will re-engage very shortly,” McGuire said to ET Now, referring to India’s strong fundamentals and resilient domestic growth.
India’s catch-up moment after global surge
McGuire compared India’s recent consolidation to Japan’s “rocket ship” rally, where the Nikkei 225 soared from 40,000 to 50,000 points in record time.
While global equities enjoyed a broad rally, India lagged behind due to cautious foreign inflows and high valuations.
“India got ahead of itself a few years ago, but this pause was necessary,” McGuire said. “It’s likely the market is ready to re-kick from here.”
FII flows: Tariffs and geopolitics holding back momentum
Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) outflows have been a drag on Indian equities through 2024.
McGuire attributed this to tariff uncertainties, Russia-Ukraine tensions, and shifting global opportunities that diverted money to markets like Japan.“Fund flows chase momentum. Japan has been screaming ahead, but as tariff and geopolitical uncertainties ease, FIIs will return to India,” he said, predicting a potential deal by Christmas that could calm global trade tensions.
Gold and silver to rebound after a sharp correction
On commodities, McGuire pointed out that gold and silver are due for another rally after a brief cooling-off period.
Gold, which nearly touched $4,400, and silver, which approached $55, saw a healthy correction after overheating.
“It’s a washout phase. Gold could hit $5,000 and silver $65 in the next few months,” he said, citing falling global interest rates and renewed investor demand.
Crude oil outlook: Short-term spike, long-term softening
Oil markets remain volatile amid new US and EU sanctions on Russia’s major oil firms—Rosneft and Lukoil.
While these sanctions caused a 2.5% spike in crude prices, McGuire expects prices to moderate as global refining margins stabilize.
“Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Geopolitical premiums may add a few dollars, but the trend should be softer over the next few months,” he added.
Global markets on edge but India’s long-term story intact
Despite near-term volatility, McGuire remains optimistic about India’s long-term trajectory.
Strong domestic demand, supportive macroeconomic policies, and resilient earnings growth, he said, make India one of the most attractive investment destinations for the next decade.
“India’s consolidation phase is nearly over. What follows could be a fresh leg of outperformance,” he concluded.