Market Outlook: From consolidation to recovery
Brokerages such as Axis Securities, Kotak Equities, HDFC Securities, and Geojit see 2025–26 as a turning point for Indian equities. The consensus view is that India’s underperformance has created room for a broad-based recovery as earnings growth picks up from Q3FY26 and the effects of fiscal and monetary easing percolate through the economy.
Axis Securities expects a “double-digit earnings rebound by FY27” supported by rising credit growth, GST rationalisation, and consumption revival. It also points out that the premium of Indian markets over emerging peers has moderated to 49% from 97% last year, creating attractive entry points.
HDFC Securities notes that India is “at an inflexion point” as policy tailwinds such as a 50 bps CRR cut, a 100 bps rate reduction, and higher government capex converge to strengthen liquidity and demand. It expects near-term volatility but sees opportunities to accumulate quality stocks amid global uncertainty.
Meanwhile, Kotak Equities remains cautiously bullish, projecting 6.5% GDP growth and an earnings growth of 17–18% for FY27. It expects returns to be driven by steady macro conditions and broad-based profit recovery across sectors such as banks, capital goods, and autos.
Stock ideas for Samvat 2082
Axis Securities has picked nine stocks aligned with five key themes — private banks, consumption plays, power sector value chain, midcap IT, and healthcare. Its Diwali picks include Kotak Mahindra Bank, Federal Bank, JSW Energy, Coforge, DOMS Industries, Chalet Hotels, Rainbow Children’s Medicare, Minda Corporation, and KEC International, with target upsides ranging from 15% to 23%.Kotak Institutional Equities presented seven stock ideas for Samvat 2082, combining cyclical and structural stories. Its top picks are Adani Ports and SEZ, Acutaas Chemicals, Cummins India, ICICI Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, and Eternal, with potential upside driven by strong sector tailwinds and robust earnings visibility. Kotak expects these names to benefit from capacity expansion, financial strength, and policy support.HDFC Securities built a ten-stock portfolio, mixing largecaps and emerging midcaps across consumption, financials, and energy. Its top ideas include Bharti Airtel, Larsen & Toubro, JSW Energy, IDFC First Bank, Happy Forgings, and Northern ARC Capital, supported by reasonable valuations and improving margins.
Geojit Financial Services curated an 11-stock Samvat portfolio focused on balance between defensive and cyclical growth. It features State Bank of India, Infosys, Hindustan Unilever, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Consumer Products, Hero MotoCorp, UltraTech Cement, and Suzlon Energy, reflecting its view that largecaps with strong governance and pricing power will lead the next upcycle.
LKP Securities has suggested eight stock ideas with high earnings visibility and strong balance sheets. Its portfolio includes ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, Coal India, GAIL, Power Grid, DLF, and ITC, citing robust demand, government reforms, and steady dividend yields.
Choice Broking has shared nine Diwali picks focused on capital goods, financials, and consumption. Its favourites are Polycab India, HDFC Bank, Maruti Suzuki, NTPC, L&T, Trent, Canara Bank, IRB Infrastructure, and RVNL, with an expected upside of 12–20% over the next 12 months.
A bright Samvat year ahead?
After a year marked by foreign outflows and modest index returns, brokerages agree that Samvat 2082 could be defined by an earnings-led rally. Structural reforms, lower interest rates, and resilient domestic flows are expected to underpin growth.