While the bank is projected to post a 5–8.5% YoY rise in profit, sequential growth is likely to remain muted owing to margin compression and slower Net Interest Income (NII) expansion. Loan growth, however, is expected to remain steady in the range of 3–4% QoQ.
The brokerage estimates of Nomura, Emkay Research, Axis Securities and YES Securities have been taken into account.
These brokerages have outlined key estimates that will determine ICICI Bank’s performance in the upcoming results.
1. PAT
Brokerages see profit after tax (PAT) between Rs 11,636 crore and Rs 12,749 crore, indicating a -0.7%-8.5% YoY rise, but a sequential decline due to lower treasury gains and weaker NIMs.
- Emkay: Rs 12,749 crore (+8.5% YoY, -0.1% QoQ)
- Nomura: Rs 12,300 crore (+5% YoY, -4% QoQ)
- Axis Securities: Rs 11,669 crore (-0.7% YoY, -8.6% QoQ)
- YES Securities: Rs 11,636 crore (-0.9% YoY, -9% QoQ)
2. NII
ICICI Bank’s NII is projected between Rs 21,186 crore and Rs 22,133 crore, showing 5–10% YoY growth, but a sequential dip as the benefit of interest on income tax refunds fades.
- Nomura: Rs 21,520 crore (+7% YoY, -1% QoQ)
- Emkay: Rs 21,493 crore (+7.2% YoY, -0.7% QoQ)
- Axis Securities: Rs 21,186 crore (+5.7% YoY, -2.1% QoQ)
YES Securities: Rs 22,133 crore (+10% YoY, +2.3% QoQ)
3. NIM
Net Interest Margin (NIM) is expected to contract by 5–14 bps QoQ, reflecting higher cost of funds and the absence of one-time interest income.
- Nomura: 4.2% (-7bps YoY, -14bps QoQ)
- Emkay: 4.2% (-5bps YoY, -12bps QoQ)
Nomura noted that adjusting for the one-off gain in Q1 (interest on tax refund), the actual NIM decline would be around 7 bps QoQ.
4. PPOP
Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP) is expected to fall 3–8% QoQ, with YoY growth of up to 9%, largely due to lower treasury income and margin compression.
- Emkay: Rs 18,186 crore (+8.7% YoY, -3% QoQ)
- Nomura: Rs 18,130 crore (+8% YoY, -3% QoQ)
- Axis Securities: Rs 17,208 crore (+2.9% YoY, -8.2% QoQ)
- YES Securities: Rs 17,664 crore (+5.6% YoY, -6% QoQ)
5. Provisions
Provisions are expected to remain moderate, with a 40% YoY rise due to a low base, but a 4–6% QoQ decline reflecting strong asset quality and controlled slippages.
- Nomura: Rs 1,740 crore (+41% YoY, -4% QoQ)
- Axis Securities: Rs 1,711 crore (+38.8% YoY, -5.7% QoQ)
6. Loans
Loan growth remains resilient, expected to expand 11% YoY and 3–4% QoQ, led by retail and SME segments.
- Nomura: Rs 14.13 lakh crore (+11% YoY, +4% QoQ)
YES Securities expects loan growth to stay around 3.5% QoQ, aided by steady demand but tempered by slower repricing of advances.
7. Deposits
Deposits are seen rising 10% YoY and 2% QoQ, in line with system growth trends.
- Nomura: Rs 16.48 lakh crore (+10% YoY, +2% QoQ)
Brokerages highlight the need for faster deposit mobilisation to sustain lending momentum amid competitive deposit rates.
8. Credit Cost
Credit costs are expected to stay benign, with analyst estimates pegging it around 0.5%, reflecting stable asset quality and controlled slippages.
- Nomura: 0.5% (+9 bps YoY, -6bps QoQ)
Axis and Emkay foresee no major asset quality challenges, with slippages likely to trend lower sequentially due to seasonal moderation in agri NPAs.
9. Key monitorables
Brokerages emphasise that the key factors to watch will be the NIM outlook and commentary on margin stabilisation. Brokerages are also likely to keep a track of deposit growth trends amid competitive pressures.
Loan growth trajectory, especially in the unsecured and retail portfolios, will be under the watch, though asset quality metrics are expected to remain steady.
Also read: HDFC Bank Q2 results preview: PAT may grow up to 9% YoY, NII to rise up to 6% amid margin squeeze
Axis Securities noted that business growth will remain healthy, with modest opex and controlled credit costs, while Nomura highlighted that the outlook on margins and deposit accretion will be the key drivers post-results.
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)