Speaking to ET Now, Suri described the Nifty’s recent flat performance as a “time correction, not a price correction,” suggesting that Indian equities are resting before a renewed leg higher.
Suri also sees three structural sectors with long-term potential — defence, online retail, and green energy.
A dull year, but a resilient market
Over the past year, Indian markets have largely moved sideways even as global markets like the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and European indices hit new highs. This contrast, Suri said, often leaves investors with a sense of “FOMO” (fear of missing out).
“You wake up and see the Dow or Nasdaq up 1.5% and hope we’ll follow, but the Nifty barely moves 20 points. The index hasn’t fallen, but many stocks are lower. When you compare with global markets, it feels like we’ve missed the rally,” he said.
However, Suri maintained that this underperformance may not be a bad thing. “If you look at it over four to five years, it’s a healthy consolidation. It’s a time correction, not a crash. Such phases often precede a strong breakout.”
Global rally driven by AI and tech powerhouses
Suri attributed much of the global rally to the AI revolution, which has created unprecedented wealth concentration in a handful of technology giants.“Globally, around 70–80% of markets have made new highs. The US, Europe, Japan — they’ve all done well. But the common driver is AI. The Fab-7 stocks — Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple, Tesla — are driving markets and delivering phenomenal earnings,” he said.
He noted that while these stocks have gone “parabolic,” this time is different from the dot-com bubble of 2000.
“Unlike the 2000 tech bubble, today’s leaders have real earnings and cash flows. They’re profitable, cash-rich, and their scale is like entire economies. This is an industrial revolution led by AI,” Suri said.
However, he admitted India missed this wave. “We have large IT companies but the market doesn’t believe they can transition fast enough. Many are at 52-week lows — it’s a sign we didn’t ride the AI wave.”
Dollar weakness and gold’s mega trend
Suri also pointed out that a breakdown in the US dollar and structural weakness in crude oil could be reshaping global capital flows.
“The dollar is weakening, and crude is breaking down. These shifts are tied to geopolitics and structural changes in the US economy,” he explained.
This, he said, is fueling a mega bull trend in gold, silver, and other commodities.
“Gold has crossed all targets and entered blue-sky territory. It’s not a speculative move; it’s structural. Sovereigns are buying gold and diversifying reserves. When the world’s traditional ‘safe haven’ — the US dollar — starts losing trust, money has to find a new home,” he said.
Suri described gold’s current surge as part of a “supercycle in commodities”, with silver and copper also seeing strong breakouts. “Corrections will come, but the long-term trend remains bullish.”
Crypto: The most fascinating chart on the planet
Among all asset classes, Suri said cryptocurrencies are showing the most spectacular technical patterns.
“Bitcoin and Ethereum charts are mind-bending. They trend like nothing else. There are no fundamentals — just pure demand and supply — so charts reflect everything. For a chartist, crypto is a dream,” he said.
Suri added that young investors globally — including many Indians abroad — are drawn to the volatility and quick gains of crypto over traditional equities.
“They tell me, ‘I trade crypto, not stocks.’ The parabolic moves in crypto are unbelievable — it’s a new generation’s market,” he said.
No global crash in sight; corrections will be healthy
Despite comparisons to past bubbles, Suri dismissed fears of a massive crash in global equities.
“Corrections, yes — but no bubble burst. Unlike 2000, today’s market leaders are highly profitable, not over-leveraged, and are genuinely transforming industries,” he said.
He believes earnings strength remains the key driver of markets worldwide. “As long as earnings hold, markets will remain healthy. We’re not at irrational valuations yet.”
India’s emerging structural themes: Defence, digital, and green energy
Back home, Suri sees three structural sectors with long-term potential — defence, online retail, and green energy.
“Defence has corrected 30–40% from last year’s highs but remains a mega theme. This isn’t just India — globally, defence is booming. The new geopolitical reality is that every nation must become self-reliant,” he said.
He expects steady order flows and long execution cycles to drive sustained performance in the sector.
Suri also sees enormous opportunity in India’s digital consumption ecosystem.
“Online retail, payments, and quick commerce are reshaping daily life. First, it was Amazon, then food delivery, and now groceries. This is becoming a habit — and a business with scale and profitability,” he said.
Another long-term play, according to him, is AI infrastructure. “Data centres are the new gold rush. Even if investors can’t directly participate, they can look at companies supplying the infrastructure — the ‘picks and shovels’ of this AI revolution.”
The bottom line: A new market cycle is taking shape
Suri concluded that while traditional Nifty heavyweights — banks, old IT, and large-cap tech — remain sluggish, new leaders are emerging from midcaps, new-age platforms, and high-growth sectors.
“We’re in a transition. The old guard is lethargic, but new players — from defence to data, green energy to digital commerce — are setting records. The next bull market will have new leadership,” he said.
According to Suri, India’s current phase of consolidation is not a sign of weakness but preparation for a breakout. “This is the rest before the next sprint,” he said.
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