On Thursday, Nifty closed 11.95 points or 0.05% higher to end the day at 24,631.30. The markets were closed on Friday on account of Independence Day.
Commenting on the current trends Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research) at Centrum Broking said that markets staged a strong rebound as the Nifty index ended its six-week losing streak and formed a bullish candle on the weekly chart. The index reclaimed its 100-DMA at 24,560, which will now serve as an immediate support, he said.
“Over the past month, the Nifty has struggled to cross its short-term 21-DMA at 24,770. A decisive move above this level is crucial to unlock further upside towards 25,000. The RSI has turned higher to 44, indicating improving momentum, while the MACD remains below the zero line. Although sentiment has improved, a clear confirmation of a trend reversal is still awaited.”
Factors that are likely to impact movement when markets reopen this week:
1. Trump-Putin talk
The understanding reached between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on the Ukraine issue on Friday is expected to lift market sentiment when trading resumes on Monday. Although the two leaders stopped short of striking a deal to end the war, Putin said they had arrived at an “understanding.” Their nearly three-hour meeting in Alaska did not produce a ceasefire, but Trump described it as a “very good meeting,” while cautioning that “there’s no deal until there is a deal.Read more – Explained: How Nifty, Sensex may react to Trump-Putin talks and Modi’s GST tax reform on Monday?
2. GST reform
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Independence Day announcement of major Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms this Diwali could boost investor sentiment, opine experts. Speaking from the Red Fort on Independence Day, Modi on Friday announced rate cuts to be rolled out by Diwali in the GST 2.0. The PM said GST rates will be lowered on everyday-use goods as part of reforms to the eight-year-old tax regime.
3. US markets
The action on Wall Street will give cues to the global markets including India. Wall Street’s two major indices finished with declines while the Dow managed to remain afloat in the green. A mixed US economic data led to the souring in sentiments. While the US retail sales climbed 0.5% in July from June, the Federal Reserve’s index for industrial production edged down
The Dow 30 ended the session at 44,946.10, gaining 34.86 points or 0.08% while S&P 500 settled at 6,449.80, down by 18.74 points or 0.29%. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 21,623, falling by 87.69 points 0.40%.
4. Corporate Action
Just about 100 companies have corporate actions lined-up this week with record dates for dividends, rights issue, stock split and bonus shares for more than 100 companies over the five-day trading week.
The companies which will have record dates for the purpose of dividend are JK Paper, Jammu & Kashmir Bank, Natco Pharma, Power Grid Corporation of India, Senco Gold, Coal India, Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL), Rail Vikas Nigam (RVNL), Federal Bank, Godfrey Phillips India and Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC).
Algoquant Fintech’s record date will be for the purpose of stock split, Josts Engineering Company for rights issue and Bemco Hydraulics for bonus issue.
5. IPO watch
It will be an IPO heavy week as 5 mainboard issues and one SME issue will hit the Indian primary markets. In the mainboard category, Patel Retail, Vikram Solar, Gem Aromatics, Shreeji Shipping Global and Mangal Electrical Industries will launch their public issues.
In the SME segment, Studio LSD will launch its IPO and the stock will get listed on the NSE Emerge platform.
Also Read: Vikram Solar, 5 other IPOs to open next week. Here’s what GMPs suggest
6. FII / DII Action
Market actions will rely on how foreign institutional investors (FIIs) behave. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 10,173 crore last week. On Friday, FIIs outflows stood at Rs 1,926.8 while the domestic institutional investors were net buyers at Rs 3,896 crore.
In 2025 so far, FIIs have sold shares worth Rs 1,16,617 crore.
7. Technical Factors
Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart said that the extreme oversold conditions and supportive global cues lifted investor sentiment though momentum remained muted due to persistent foreign outflows. Broader markets staged a recovery across sectors, led by pharma and auto stocks, though FMCG lagged, he added.
From a technical standpoint, the Nifty has established a strong base at the 24,350 level, forming a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern on the weekly chart, Meena said. “The immediate resistance lies at the 20 and 50-day moving averages (DMAs) clustered around 24,700-24,800. A decisive break above this level could trigger a short-covering rally towards 24,950, 25,080, and 25,225. Immediate support is at the 100-DMA of 24,575, with the crucial support level remaining at 24,350,” he added.
8. Rupee Vs Dollar
The rupee closed at 87.5500 against the U.S. dollar, softer than Wednesday’s close of 87.4400, navigating a choppy session that saw it swing between 87.39 and 87.67. The currency unit touched 87.8850 last week after Trump’s tariffs salvo, with the Reserve Bank of India stepping in to prevent the rupee from breaching the all-time low of 87.95 – a level bankers believe the central bank will continue to defend.
“In the shorter term, we may see some relief on the ratings upgrade, but the rupee is still not out of the woods as trade uncertainties persist and broad economic indicators are still weak,” said Dilip Parmar, currency analyst at HDFC Securities.
9. Crude Oil
Crude oil prices cooled on Friday in light of the Trump-Putin meeting. Moreover, quoting analysts Reuters reported that premiums for prompt benchmark oil prices globally are falling compared with those in future months on rising output from the Middle East, Latin America and Europe, just as peak summer demand ends.
The US WTI oil contracts ended at $63.14, down by $0.82 or 1.28% while Brent oil futures were hovering near $65.85, higher by $0.71 or 1.06%.
(Inputs from agencies)
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)