NMDC reported a profit after tax of Rs 1,969 crore in the April–June quarter of FY26, down from Rs 1,984 crore a year earlier, as higher expenses offset gains from robust production and sales.
Revenue from operations surged 23% YoY to Rs 6,634 crore from Rs 5,378 crore in Q1 FY25, supported by a 31% rise in iron ore output to 119.94 lakh tonnes and a 14% increase in sales to 115.17 lakh tonnes.
EBITDA in the June quarter rose 2% to Rs 2,777 crore from Rs 2,725 crore, with margins inching up to 42%. Total income climbed 21% year-on-year to Rs 6,932 crore in Q1 FY26.
Nuvama’s take
Nuvama said NMDC’s Q1FY26 EBITDA of Rs 2,480 crore was broadly in line with estimates and up 5% year-on-year. Blended iron ore realisation rose 1% to Rs 5,353 per tonne, though this was offset by a 21% rise in cost of production per tonne.
The brokerage projected Q2FY26 EBITDA per tonne at Rs 1,800–2,000, citing the company’s August price hike of Rs 400 per tonne and expected sales growth of over 10% year-on-year. Nuvama retained its Rs 85 target price and ‘buy’ rating.
“Receivables from RINL have decreased quarter-on-quarter while overall receivables shall fall in the coming quarters with NMDC Steel becoming profitable in Q1FY26,” the brokerage said.
PL Capital’s view
PL Capital also maintained a positive stance, rating the stock ‘Accumulate’ with a target price of Rs 80, up from Rs 73 earlier. “NMDC reported a strong Q1FY26 operating performance, driven by robust volume growth and better-than-expected pricing,” the brokerage said, noting 14% year-on-year volume growth aided by strong domestic steel demand and government infrastructure spending.
Moderate employee costs and a slower ramp-up at KIOCL’s pellet plant supported an EBITDA per tonne of Rs 2,152, the brokerage noted. Realisations improved 7.4% quarter-on-quarter on price hikes in May, though receivables from RINL and NMDC Steel remain elevated.
PL Capital expects iron ore price increases in August to support margins in the second quarter and forecasts revenue, EBITDA, and profit growth at compound annual rates of 20%, 20% and 17% respectively over FY25–27.
Outlook
NMDC has forecast sales volumes of 49 million tonnes in FY26, up 10% year-on-year, and expects EBITDA growth at an 11% compound annual rate between FY25 and FY27.
The company also holds significant domestic and overseas investments, including majority stakes in subsidiaries such as Jammu & Kashmir Mineral Development Corporation and Australia-based Legacy Iron Ore.
Shares and technical
NMDC shares have risen 5% so far in 2025 and the stock is down 3% over the last one week.
From a technical standpoint, the stock is currently trading below six of its eight key simple moving averages (SMA), including the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, 50-day, and 200-day SMAs, while the stock is trading above its 100-day and 150-day SMAs.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 59.3, suggesting the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at 0.4 and remains above the center line but below the signal line.
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