Commodity and currency expert Anuj Gupta said the rupee could open in the range of 93-94 against the US dollar on Friday, expressing concerns over the sharp spike in crude oil which surged 7% intraday, hitting the levels around $116 a barrel.
The INR has depreciated 2.39% against the greenback since the Mideast war broke out and is down 3.26% so far in 2026, Gupta said, adding that the cues for Friday trade remain strongly bearish.
Echoing similar sentiments, Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP expects a weak opening for the INR. He estimates the range between 92.50 and 93.50, but added that an intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could reduce the impact.
Indian markets saw a bloodbath today, with Nifty plunging 776 points or 3.3% to settle at 23,002.15 while the BSE Sensex tanked 2,208 points (2.9%) to close at 74,496.02. There was widespread selling with not a single sector managing to end positive. The worst performers were financials, auto, IT, realty and energy sectors.
The INR ended at 92.4514 on the NSE against the USD on Wednesday, gaining marginally from the previous day’s close of 92.4570. It fell to a record low of 92.6225 per dollar on Wednesday.
INR’s continued weakness rides on constant exodus of foreign flows. They have sold Indian equities worth Rs 90,561 crore in 2026 year-to-date. Today, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities to the tune of Rs 7,558 crore.”FPIs continuing to make outflows despite the three days of rise in equities while oil companies buy dollar for procuring oil and gas for the country,” Bhansali said. He suggested buying dollars on dip.
Brent crude oil prices have climbed about 40% since the war broke out. Sustained high oil prices would widen the current account deficit and fuel inflation in India, leaving the currency more exposed than many of its peers.
India imports over 80% of its energy needs. The Middle East conflict also threatens to curb remittances from the diaspora and hurt exports to the region.
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)