“Notably, delivery volumes have surged 3× for Netweb and nearly 9× for Newgen relative to their respective monthly averages, suggesting strong hands accumulating on the up‑move. We would stay put on both, unless the key supports give way,” says Anand James, Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Investments.
Edited excerpts from a chat on Nifty, Nifty Bank outlook, stock ideas and trading strategy:
Nifty ended the week higher despite Thursday’s steep fall. Is 25,400 the big support level that can protect bulls this monthly expiry?
The 25,400 region is significant due to the coincidence of many key events, namely a breakaway gap, horizontal support, as well as key moving averages. Hence, it is not a surprise that multiple downside attempts were turned into accumulation points at this junction. The flag formation allows for a vertical rise, but if we stumble again in the 25,900–26,200 region, upside hopes will have to be abandoned. Further, given the rise in volatility, we do not see the 25,400 region staying intact should there be a repeat attack.
With Nifty Bank outperforming, how would you trade the index? What are the key support and resistance levels to watch out for?
BankNifty continues to display strong upward momentum, holding firmly above the key breakout zone around 59,500. The index remains well-supported by its rising moving averages on the weekly chart, indicating a healthy trend structure. Price action has consistently respected higher lows, reinforcing bullish control even during brief pullbacks. The MACD on the weekly timeframe is in positive territory with widening histogram bars, suggesting strengthening momentum and room for further upside. RSI is trending above the 60 mark, a region typically associated with sustained bullish phases, without yet entering overbought territory.
Immediate resistance lies near 62,800–63,500, and a close above this band could trigger a fresh leg higher toward the 65,000 zone. Dips toward 60,000–59,500 are likely to attract buying interest, supported by strong volume clusters and previous consolidation levels.
Despite delivery volumes cooling till Thursday after the 12–13 Feb spike, the mix has turned constructive, with PSU strength and rotation into mid- and large-cap lenders together supporting a buy-on-dips bias for BankNifty in the near term.Overall, the technical structure favors continued upward movement, with any near‑term softness likely serving as an opportunity for bulls to reinforce position.
We have seen a sharp spike in India VIX. Do you forecast increasing volatility ahead?
VIX has risen to the highest level since early February, after which we saw volatility easing and the index rising. The only difference is that the period prior to early February’s rise was dominated by declines, while the present stage is more of a consolidation. This leads to the assumption that normalization of present volatility behavior is more likely than an escalation from the present VIX.
Newgen and Netweb were among the biggest gainers in the week. What are the charts indicating: profit booking or higher upside?
Newgen Software staged a sharp rebound from the 470–500 support band on its strongest volume in months, indicating that the stock may have completed a selling phase and is transitioning into early base formation. Momentum signals are improving, with RSI exiting oversold territory and MACD giving a fresh bullish crossover below the zero line. Immediate resistance lies at 600–650 zones. A close above this cluster would strengthen the recovery and open room toward 700–740. On the weekly chart, a positive candle backed by elevated volume reinforces a potential bottoming attempt. Weekly RSI is curling up, and MACD is flattening, indicating a trend reversal. However, a failure to hold above 500 would delay the bullish setup and expose lower weekly supports.
Netweb Technologies confirmed a breakout on the daily timeframe with a wide-range upmove and rising delivery volumes, pushing the stock above the 3,550–3,600 supply zone. Momentum remains constructive with RSI above 60 and MACD expanding positively. As long as the stock sustains above 3,500–3,525, the near-term structure favors continuation. Resistance appears at 3,700–3,750, above which the move can extend toward 3,900–4,000.
Notably, delivery volumes have surged 3× for Netweb and nearly 9× for Newgen relative to their respective monthly averages, suggesting strong hands accumulating on the up‑move. We would stay put on both unless the key supports give way.
Give me your top trading ideas for the week.
KEI (CMP: 4,756)
View: Buy
Target: 4,880
SL: 4,570
KEI has resumed its uptrend on the weekly chart, breaking out from a multi‑month range and closing near 4,750. Price is riding above the rising 20- and 50-week averages and the cloud, underscoring trend strength. Momentum is constructive with RSI holding above 60 and rising, while MACD has turned up with a positive histogram, signaling improving follow-through.
Immediate resistance appears near 4,800, then 5,200, prior swing high. On the downside, 4,570–4,600 looks to be strong support and can lend support in the near term.
The bias remains bullish while above 4,570 on a closing basis.
TRIVENI (CMP: 385)
View: Buy
Target: 400
SL: 374
Triveni is attempting a trend turn on the weekly chart after reclaiming the 200-week SMA near 374 and printing a sequence of higher lows. RSI has pushed back above 50 and is rising, while MACD has begun a bullish crossover with the histogram turning positive, signaling the early phase of an upswing. Immediate resistance lies at 388–392, followed by 400, and a decisive close above 400 can pave the way toward higher highs. Initial support is placed at 374 around the 200-week average, and a sustained break below 374–365 would postpone the reversal and expose lower levels.
The bias remains constructive as long as the stock holds above 374 on a weekly closing basis.