April gold futures were trading around Rs 1,57,490 on the MCX, down 18% from their peak of Rs 1,93,096. On COMEX, gold hovered near $5,049.30 an ounce, up $70, or 1.4%, intraday.
Commenting on the current trend, Trivedi said gold has seen a sharp correction from higher levels but is now showing signs of short-term stabilisation. “The structure suggests a recovery phase within a broader volatile trend, supported by improving momentum indicators,” he said, adding that rupee volatility continues to amplify price swings on the MCX compared with COMEX.
4 tech triggers to watch out for
1) Key support & resistance
After the steep decline from the Rs 1,90,000 zone, the price formed a base near Rs 1,41,000 – Rs 1,45,000 and has been gradually recovering. Immediate resistance is seen near Rs 1,60,000 – Rs 1,62,000, followed by a stronger supply zone at Rs 1,64,500 – Rs 1,65,000. A sustained close above Rs 1,65,000 would confirm a broader trend reversal.
On the downside, Rs 1,54,000 – Rs 1,55,000 is acting as a strong demand zone and short-term structure support. Major swing support lies near Rs 1,48,000, which becomes the positional stop level.
2) Momentum indicators
RSI is currently around 60, reflecting improving bullish momentum without being overbought. This suggests there is room for further upside before momentum exhaustion appears. The RSI structure shows higher lows, confirming recovery strength.
Price has moved from the lower band toward the mid to upper band, indicating volatility expansion after a squeeze phase. A sustained move toward the upper band near Rs 1,62,000 would confirm strength continuation. Pullbacks toward the mid-band are likely to attract buying interest.
3) Moving averages
The EMA 8 has crossed above short-term consolidation levels and is attempting to turn upward, while the EMA 21 is flattening, suggesting a transition from a bearish to a neutral-bullish structure. Price sustaining above both EMAs supports a buy-on-dip approach.
4) MACD
MACD has shifted into positive territory with a bullish crossover. Histogram bars are turning green, indicating improving upward momentum. This supports continuation toward higher resistance levels.
Gold trading strategy
Trivedi said that the overall structure favors gradual upside recovery as long as Rs 1,48,000 holds on a closing basis. Pullbacks toward Rs 1,54,000 – Rs 1,55,000 should be viewed as accumulation opportunities.
He recommends a buy on dips strategy at Rs 1,54,000 – Rs 1,55,000. The stop loss is Rs 1,48,000 on the closing basis. The targets are at Rs 1,62,000 – Rs 1,65,000
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)