The focus will remain on key metrics like net interest income (NII), net interest margin (NIM), and asset quality, particularly in light of the broader banking sector trends in the December quarter.
Apart from core operating metrics, updates on fee income, provisioning trends, and commentary on unsecured loan exposure will be critical from a market perspective.
Analysts will also look for cues on ICICI Bank’s credit card and digital lending portfolio, as well as any early commentary around FY27 growth strategy. The Q3 earnings outcome may provide fresh triggers for rerating or consolidation.
Here are the key metrics to watch:
1. PAT (Profit After Tax): Broad consensus at Rs 1,200–1,265 cr
Broker estimates suggest ICICI Bank may post a net profit between Rs 12,000 crore and Rs 12,659 crore, implying YoY growth of 1–7%, and QoQ movement largely flat to slightly negative.Kotak Institutional Equities estimates PAT at Rs 12,523 crore (up 6% YoY, 1% QoQ)
JM Financial projects Rs 11,946 crore (up 1.3% YoY, down 3.3% QoQ)
IIFL Capital forecasts Rs 12,000 crore (up 1% YoY, down 3% QoQ)
Emkay Global expects Rs 12,641 crore (up 7.2% YoY, 2.3% QoQ)
Elara Capital pegs it at Rs 12,366 crore (up 4.9% YoY, flat QoQ)
Most brokerages expect stable asset quality to support profitability, even as seasonally higher agri slippages and modest margin compression could impact the bottom line.
2. Net Interest Income (NII): Estimated between Rs 21,622–Rs 22,073 Cr
NII growth is expected to remain healthy, driven by double-digit loan book expansion. Estimates suggest 6–8% YoY growth, with sequential expansion of 0–2.5%.
Kotak Institutional Equities: Rs 21,622 crore (flat QoQ, up 6% YoY)
JM Financial: Rs 21,649 crore (up 6.3% YoY, up 0.6% QoQ)
IIFL Capital: Rs 22,000 crore (up 8% YoY, up 2% QoQ)
Emkay Global: Rs 22,030 crore (up 8.1% YoY, up 2.3% QoQ)
Elara Capital: Rs 21,972 crore (up 7.9% YoY, up 2.1% QoQ)
The consistent NII growth reflects healthy credit momentum, particularly in the retail and SME segments.
3. Net Interest Margin (NIM): Seen Flat QoQ; Rangebound at 4.3%
Brokerage firm Emaky Global expects NIMs to hold steady around 4.3%, projecting a slight sequential uptick of 1 basis point, and YoY improvement of 6 basis points.
The stability in margins is seen as a positive, given the continued deposit repricing pressure in the system.
4. Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP): Rs 17,253–Rs 18,155 Cr
Broker estimates for PPOP reflect YoY growth of 4–7.5%, and QoQ growth of 1–5%.
Kotak Equities: Rs 17,515 crore (up 4% YoY, 1% QoQ)
JM Financial: Rs 17,588 crore (up 4.2% YoY, 1.7% QoQ)
IIFL: Rs 17,300 crore (up 5% YoY, 2% QoQ)
Emkay Global: Rs 18,156 crore in operating profit (up 7.5% YoY, 5% QoQ)
Elara Capital: Rs 17,725 crore (up 5% YoY, up 2.5% QoQ)
5. Credit Costs
JM Financial believes that ICICI Bank is expected to report credit costs around 0.5% (0.3%-0.5% in 2Q).
Within their private banks’ coverage, Emkay Global stated that it expects ICICI Bank to report better credit growth momentum.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)