The rupee, which touched record lows in 202,5 is also likely “oversold” due to the uncertainty of US tariffs and is likely to regain its losses during the year, the bankers said without giving a level for the rupee.
Rob Chan, head of ECM syndicate for Asia at Citi, said he expects the IPO market to be “very active” in 2026.
“Valuations are high, which will lead to ECM activity with a lot of private equity, shareholder promoters and foreign controlling shareholders likely to cash in. We expect a $15 to $20 billion in 2026, which will become bigger with a lot of high-profile transactions expected as investor appetite remains strong, especially in domestic and retail segments,” Chan said.
Last year was one of the busiest in the primary market, with about Rs 1.8 lakh crore raised, led by top financial sector names like Tata Capital, HDB Financial Services and also large offers for sale by LG Electronics India and ICICI Prudential AMC.
2025 was also a year of the rupee’s weakness, with the Indian currency falling below the Rs 91 per dollar mark amid geopolitical volatilities as the Trump administration imposed a 50% tariff on imports from India due to the country’s past purchases of Russian oil.
Nitesh Dugar, head of debt capital markets, South and Southeast Asia at Citibank, said the rupee could turn the corner this year as more clarity emerges on tariffs.”The currency is probably a bit oversold thw tariff uncertainty is predominantly media-fuelled. Negotiations are ongoing, and as the reality of what happens emerges, the bias could be towards appreciation,” Dugar said without giving a level for the rupee.
Forecasts revealed earlier for the year show that Citibank economists expect the rupee to stay broadly around the Rs 91 level per dollar, suggesting that the underperformance seen in 2025 may not repeat in 2026.
Dugar said that though India issues in the global bond market have been muted in 2025, this year could be different, mainly due to the impending external commercial borrowing (ECB) guidelines expected from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
In October, the RBI proposed sweeping liberalisation of the ECB framework, suggesting removal of cost caps, widening the eligibility, and tying fundraising limits to the financial strength of the borrower to make it easier for companies to access foreign funds.
The new norms seek to allow companies to raise funds through ECBs up to $1 billion in a financial year or up to 300% of their networth, whichever is higher, substantially more than the current ceiling of $750 million.
Also on the table is the elimination of cost caps on ECBs against a maximum spread of 450 basis points over the benchmark for foreign-currency ECBs, mandated earlier.
Dugar said the new guidelines open up new opportunities for banks and issuers whenever they are finalised, likely later this year.
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